Knipl, DH;
Röst, G;
Wu, J;
(2013)
Epidemic Spread and Variation of Peak Times in Connected Regions Due to Travel-Related Infections - Dynamics of an Antigravity-Type Delay Differential Model.
SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems
, 12
(4)
pp. 1722-1762.
10.1137/130914127.
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Abstract
National boundaries have never prevented infectious diseases from reaching distant territories; however, the speed at which an infectious agent can spread around the world via the global airline transportation network has significantly increased during recent decades. We introduce an SEAIR-based, antigravity model to investigate the spread of an infectious disease in two regions which are connected by transportation. As a submodel, an age-structured system is constructed to incorporate the possibility of disease transmission during travel, where age is the time elapsed since the start of the travel. The model is equivalent to a large system of differential equations with dynamically defined delayed feedback. After describing fundamental but biologically relevant properties of the system, we detail the calculation of the basic reproduction number and obtain disease transmission dynamics results in terms of $\mathcal{R}_0$. We parametrize our model for influenza and use real demographic and air travel data for the numerical simulations. To understand the role of the different characteristics of the regions in the propagation of the disease, three distinct origin-destination pairs are considered. The model is also fitted to the first wave of the influenza A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic in Mexico and Canada. Our results highlight the importance of including travel time and disease dynamics during travel in the model: the invasion of disease-free regions is highly expedited by elevated transmission potential during transportation.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Epidemic Spread and Variation of Peak Times in Connected Regions Due to Travel-Related Infections - Dynamics of an Antigravity-Type Delay Differential Model |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1137/130914127 |
| Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1137/130914127 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | First Published in SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems in Volume 12, Issue 4 (2013), published by the Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM). Copyright © 2013 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics. |
| Keywords: | differential equations, transportation model, epidemic spread, influenza modeling |
| UCL classification: | UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1473754 |
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