Li, Kaiyu;
Salmanidou, Dimitra;
Gopinathan, Devaraj;
Heidarzadeh, Mohammad;
Guillas, Serge;
(2025)
Uncertainty in Manning's roughness coefficient in multilevel simulations of future tsunamis in Sumatra.
Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
, 481
(2316)
, Article 20240637. 10.1098/rspa.2024.0637.
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Abstract
We employ multilevel Bayesian quadrature (MLBQ) to quantify uncertainties in the land cover roughness, a critical but unknown parameter for simulation of structural forces from future tsunamis that inform coastal engineering and urban planning. To account for this uncertainty, we regard roughness as a nuisance parameter and integrate out its effects on the maximum momentum flux. A comprehensive integration over a range of roughness requires large numbers of computationally expensive simulations. We circumvent this hurdle using multilevels of resolution for the simulations, a mix of two levels of mesh sizing for underlying non-uniform unstructured mesh - a low (50 m) and high (25 m) resolution. The computational burden of the overall integration is further reduced by blending the outputs of the multilevel simulations using Bayesian quadrature. Using end-to-end physical and numerical modelling to simulate the entire tsunami life-cycle - earthquake source to coastal inundation - we illustrate our approach by computing probability distributions of local effects from future large tsunamis for Sumatra. Our MLBQ framework, accounting for uncertainties in roughness while reducing computational burden, can improve probabilistic hazard and risk assessments in combination with other uncertainties.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Uncertainty in Manning's roughness coefficient in multilevel simulations of future tsunamis in Sumatra |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1098/rspa.2024.0637 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2024.0637 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | 2025 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. |
| Keywords: | Science & Technology, Multidisciplinary Sciences, Science & Technology - Other Topics, hazard assessment, friction, multifidelity, probabilistic numerics, uncertainty quantification, coastal engineering, ANDAMAN EARTHQUAKE, INUNDATION, INFERENCE, VELOCITY, TIME |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Statistical Science |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10220047 |
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