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Assessing the impact of modelling variability on building performance simulation results

Yang, Jingxuan; Burman, Esfandiar; Mumovic, dejan; (2025) Assessing the impact of modelling variability on building performance simulation results. In: Proceedings of the 19th IBPSA Conference. IBPSA: Brisbane, Australia. Green open access

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Abstract

A modelling framework that applies a design-forperformance approach to predict the actual operational energy consumption of buildings was presented in the latest published CIBSE TM54 (2022) in the UK. However, modelling uncertainty can lead to discrepancies between predicted and actual energy consumption. Identifying these uncertainties is crucial for enhancing the reliability of building performance simulation approaches. This study developed a modelling task for practitioners based on a simplified school building . The requirement was to simulate energy use in IES VE or DesignBuilder software using either the template-level HVAC modelling or detailed component-level HVAC modelling approaches proposed in CIBSE TM54. The predicted annual natural gas and electricity consumption from the 20 participants showed substantial variability, ranging from -74.8% to 157.7% and -74.3% to 114.9%, respectively. This paper contributes to further improvement and detailing of modelling framework in the future.

Type: Proceedings paper
Title: Assessing the impact of modelling variability on building performance simulation results
Event: Building Simulation 2025
Location: Brisbane, Australia
Dates: 24 Aug 2025 - 27 Aug 2025
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.26868/25222708.2025.1816
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.26868/25222708.2025.1816
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the version of record. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10214138
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