Liu, An;
(2024)
Integrated Multi-Hazard and Vulnerability Modelling for Flood Risk Assessment in the US Gulf Coast.
Masters thesis (MRes), Department of Risk and Disaster Reduction.
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Abstract
This thesis proposes a multi hazard modelling framework to address the increasing risk of flood-related damages in the US Gulf Coast region due to climate change, urbanisation, and extreme weather events. This research develops a statistical per event-based catastrophe model on predicting the financial losses from flooding triggered by the heavy precipitation/rainfall from abnormal (high) windspeed via integrating statistical (Extreme Value Theory and Copula analysis) and machine learning methodologies (Generalised Linear Model). This study focuses on the US Gulf Coast, particularly the states of Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. The proposed assessment is structured into two distinct yet complementary objectives: the hazard and vulnerability models. The hazard model aims to calculate the annual joint occurrence probability for wind-driven floods by capturing the complexities and dependencies of how floods will be driven and impacted by windspeed. The vulnerability model aims to predict potential losses for single buildings or a portfolio of properties under different building characteristics, and it is evaluated using cross-validation methods to examine its reliability and accuracy. The outcome is the financial losses from the specific intensity of natural disaster events and the exceedance probability for specific thresholds. The outcome shows the risk of extreme windspeed events across three states on the US Gulf Coast. It provides valuable insights for understanding, predicting, and managing risks associated with wind-related hazard and their cascading effect, contributing to urban planning, disaster management, and the insurance and reinsurance industry. Also, this research contributes to developing a multi-hazard flood risk assessment framework and offers a solid foundation of non-commercial tools for researchers and policymakers to better manage coastal flood risks.
| Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Qualification: | MRes |
| Title: | Integrated Multi-Hazard and Vulnerability Modelling for Flood Risk Assessment in the US Gulf Coast |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © The Author 2024. Original content in this thesis is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) Licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). Any third-party copyright material present remains the property of its respective owner(s) and is licensed under its existing terms. Access may initially be restricted at the author’s request. |
| Keywords: | Multi-Hazard Modelling, Vulnerability Modelling, Flood Risk Assessment, US Gulf Coast, Catastrophe Modelling |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Geography |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10198115 |
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