He, Kehan;
(2024)
Methodological Innovation of the Input-Output Model and Its Applications.
Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).
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Abstract
The Input-Output Model is a powerful economic tool used for economic structure analysis and extended applications. Economists often adopts the Input-Output Model to investigate the changes in economic structures and the associated social impacts. Taking China as a case study, this thesis first describes the compilation of China’s 2017 Multi-Regional Input-Output table and its application in revealing the intensifying geographical inequality of China’s carbon emissions. It however exposes some of the most widely criticized drawbacks of the Input-Output Model, being the high cost in data preparation, the oversimplification of economic symbiosis, and the lack in forecast ability. Thus, conventional Input-Output Model is unfortunately unsuited to high resolution time-series analysis. This thesis hence proposes an innovative regression algorithm on a derivative of Input-Output model, the Sequential Interindustry Model, to incorporate high-frequency time domain into the analysis of the intersectoral interactions of economic sectors by regressions on the observations of outputs of different economic sectors. To test the efficacy of the innovated algorithm, the electricity consumption data of Chongqing municipality is used as a proxy to economic activities. The result verifies the validity of the innovated algorithm in time-lagged analysis of the economic sectors’ interlinkages in the investigated region, and hence facilitate short future predictions of the economy under different scenario settings. Through the inclusion of investment as a parameter and learning from extended Input-Output Model methodological literatures, further algorithm innovation is introduced to a dynamic version of SIM to account for the indirect cost of 2015 South India flood across different regions. Based on the series of venturing in the methodological advancement of Input-Output Model, this thesis concludes by a literature review and qualitative discussion on the directions of interdisciplinary development in Input-Output Model, which is the integration of system engineering techniques in the exploration of solutions to economic cybernetics.
| Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Qualification: | Ph.D |
| Title: | Methodological Innovation of the Input-Output Model and Its Applications |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © The Author 2024. Original content in this thesis is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) Licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). Any third-party copyright material present remains the property of its respective owner(s) and is licensed under its existing terms. Access may initially be restricted at the author’s request. |
| UCL classification: | UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > The Bartlett Sch of Const and Proj Mgt UCL |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10185789 |
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