Nocera, Fabrizio; Cremen, Gemma; (2023) Optimal infrastructure design in growing cities: A people-centred risk-informed and (possibly) holistic approach. In: Proceedings of Conference Earthquake risk and engineering towards a resilient world (SECED 2023). Society for Earthquake and Civil Engineering Dynamics (SECED)

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Abstract

The well-being and economic prosperity of societies rely on large-scale interdependent infrastructure and their provision of essential services. However, past events around the world (including major earthquakes) have highlighted the notable vulnerability of infrastructure to natural/anthropogenic hazards, which has had significant societal consequences. Previous research has focused on developing risk-modelling approaches and computational tools for quantifying the consequences of hazardous events on critical infrastructure in urban environments. However, in the context of climate change, rapid population growth, and increasingly interconnected urbanisation, a theoretical framework for designing risk-informed critical infrastructure from a forward-looking, dynamic, and people-centred perspective is required. Although, it is also important to consider that optimising infrastructure design accounting only for natural-hazard risk could have additional (potentially negative) socioeconomic consequences not represented in conventional natural-hazard risk-modelling approaches. In response to these challenges, this paper presents a people-centred, risk-informed decisionmaking framework for future urban infrastructure development in growing cities. The framework captures the performance of infrastructure in terms of serving the community’s needs; the underlying optimal infrastructure design balances this performance in regular conditions, in the immediate aftermath of a hazard, and during the long-term recovery process. We also illustrate a potential expansion of the framework, which involves integrating a bespoke agent-based model that accounts for the implications of variations in infrastructure development on land values and resulting dynamic residential location choices. This final feature of the framework would allow for measuring gentrification, a macro-scale unintended effect of risk-informed infrastructure design that is not explicitly related to natural-hazard events. We demonstrate the framework by optimising the transportation infrastructure design of a hypothetical future community.

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