Adaptive Short-Term Flood Defense Deployment Planning

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Adaptive Short-Term Flood Defense Deployment Planning

Ni, Mengke; Erfani, Tohid; (2022) Adaptive Short-Term Flood Defense Deployment Planning. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management , 148 (6) , Article 04022030. 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001551. Green open access

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Abstract

Temporary flood defenses constitute a supplementary approach to permanent engineering solutions for flood management. However, their deployment strategy is a challenge because it depends on uncertain short-term weather conditions. The strategies that later proved to be insufficient or underused can have high social and environmental costs. Real options analysis (ROA) provides a mechanism to include flexibility in decision making to adapt the deployment strategies to future conditions and handle the aforementioned challenge in temporary flood defenses planning. To apply ROA principles, we combined multistage stochastic programming and a scenario tree. The methodology provided adaptive and flexible deployment decisions as uncertain future weather conditions were resolved. The proposed formulation was applied to nine flood-affected locations in Carlisle, northwest England, and the implications of the results were investigated. The results showed that there is a value achieved by building ROA in design of temporary defense deployment planning under uncertainty.

Type:	Article
Title:	Adaptive Short-Term Flood Defense Deployment Planning
Open access status:	An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI:	10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001551
Publisher version:	https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001551
Language:	English
Additional information:	This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
UCL classification:	UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL
URI:	https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10148712