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Unshifting the baseline: a framework for documenting historical population changes and assessing long-term anthropogenic impacts

Rodrigues, ASL; Monsarrat, S; Charpentier, A; Brooks, TM; Hoffmann, M; Reeves, R; Palomares, MLD; (2019) Unshifting the baseline: a framework for documenting historical population changes and assessing long-term anthropogenic impacts. Philosophical Transactions B: Biological Sciences , 374 (1788) 10.1098/rstb.2019.0220. Green open access

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Abstract

Ecological baselines—reference states of species' distributions and abundances—are key to the scientific arguments underpinning many conservation and management interventions, as well as to the public support to such interventions. Yet societal as well as scientific perceptions of these baselines are often based on ecosystems that have been deeply transformed by human actions. Despite increased awareness about the pervasiveness and implications of this shifting baseline syndrome, ongoing global assessments of the state of biodiversity do not take into account the long-term, cumulative, anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity. Here, we propose a new framework for documenting such impacts, by classifying populations according to the extent to which they deviate from a baseline in the absence of human actions. We apply this framework to the bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) to illustrate how it can be used to assess populations with different geographies and timelines of known or suspected impacts. Through other examples, we discuss how the framework can be applied to populations for which there is a wide diversity of existing knowledge, by making the best use of the available ecological, historical and archaeological data. Combined across multiple populations, this framework provides a standard for assessing cumulative anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity.

Type: Article
Title: Unshifting the baseline: a framework for documenting historical population changes and assessing long-term anthropogenic impacts
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2019.0220
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0220
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: ecological baselines, EPOCH assessments, anthropogenic impacts, population depletion, population recovery, shifting baseline
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10082187
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