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Determinants of energy futures - a scenario discovery method applied to cost and carbon emission futures for South American electricity infrastructure

Moksnes, N; Rozenberg, J; Broad, O; Taliotis, C; Howells, M; Rogner, H; (2019) Determinants of energy futures - a scenario discovery method applied to cost and carbon emission futures for South American electricity infrastructure. Environmental Research Communications 10.1088/2515-7620/ab06de. (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

Energy policy and investment are commonly informed by a small number of scenarios, modelled with proprietary models and closed data-sets. It limits what levels of insight that can be derived from it. This paper overcomes these critical concerns by exploring a large number of scenarios with an open-data and open-source model to address regional mitigation policy. Focusing on South America, we translate an ensemble of long-term electricity supply scenarios into policy insights and use post-processing methods to present a systematic mapping of solution outputs to model inputs. We find demand levels, the cost of capital and the level of CO2-limits to be significant determinants of total investment cost. Low-carbon pathways are associated with low demand and low cost of capital. When cost of capital increases a shift away from wind and hydropower to natural gas and solar PV is seen. We further show that appropriate concessionary finance together with energy efficiency measures are critical – at a continental level – to unlock economic, low-carbon investment.

Type: Article
Title: Determinants of energy futures - a scenario discovery method applied to cost and carbon emission futures for South American electricity infrastructure
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ab06de
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab06de
Language: English
Additional information: As the Version of Record of this article is going to be/has been published on a gold open access basis under a CC BY 3.0 licence, this Accepted Manuscript is available for reuse under a CC BY 3.0 licence immediately. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
Keywords: Energy modelling, Scenario discovery, South America, OSeMOSYS
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10068536
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