Moksnes, N;
Rozenberg, J;
Broad, O;
Taliotis, C;
Howells, M;
Rogner, H;
(2019)
Determinants of energy futures - a scenario discovery method applied to cost and carbon emission futures for South American electricity infrastructure.
Environmental Research Communications
10.1088/2515-7620/ab06de.
(In press).
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Abstract
Energy policy and investment are commonly informed by a small number of scenarios, modelled with proprietary models and closed data-sets. It limits what levels of insight that can be derived from it. This paper overcomes these critical concerns by exploring a large number of scenarios with an open-data and open-source model to address regional mitigation policy. Focusing on South America, we translate an ensemble of long-term electricity supply scenarios into policy insights and use post-processing methods to present a systematic mapping of solution outputs to model inputs. We find demand levels, the cost of capital and the level of CO2-limits to be significant determinants of total investment cost. Low-carbon pathways are associated with low demand and low cost of capital. When cost of capital increases a shift away from wind and hydropower to natural gas and solar PV is seen. We further show that appropriate concessionary finance together with energy efficiency measures are critical – at a continental level – to unlock economic, low-carbon investment.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Determinants of energy futures - a scenario discovery method applied to cost and carbon emission futures for South American electricity infrastructure |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1088/2515-7620/ab06de |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab06de |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | As the Version of Record of this article is going to be/has been published on a gold open access basis under a CC BY 3.0 licence, this Accepted Manuscript is available for reuse under a CC BY 3.0 licence immediately. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ |
| Keywords: | Energy modelling, Scenario discovery, South America, OSeMOSYS |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10068536 |
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