Wang, Xuebing; (2018) The impact on Chinese passenger airlines by including them in emission reduction schemes. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

Civil Aviation contributes to 2-3% of global total GHG emissions. Although it is a small share, the growth rate of aircraft emissions is faster than most industries in the world. Scientists and aircraft manufacture keen to find means to improve fuel efficiency and reduce aircraft emissions. However, technology innovation is not going to be achieved in the near future. Therefore, governments and international organisations placed their focus on policy instruments. This thesis selects China, the largest emitter in the world, as an example to study how emissions mitigation schemes could influence the airline industry. While there has been a spectacular growth in Chinese aviation in recent decades, driven by economic and population growth, limited research has focused on the consequential increase in carbon dioxide emissions from the Chinese aviation industry, which has grown on average by 12% per annum since 1986. Therefore, this research firstly examined historical drivers pushing aviation sector to grow; and then develops a range of empirical models of future aviation growth to explore the cost impact of emission abatement instruments on the growth and competitiveness of the Chinese aviation industry. By using flights between EEA countries and China as a case study, the thesis develops a more detailed region-paired demand model to project future growth of international aviation; and also compared discrete choice analysis with the market share model and myopic game theory to examine the impact on airline competition due to mitigation schemes. There are significant policy challenges in developing mitigation schemes for international aviation, which are explored in this thesis as well. The empirical analysis of the thesis provides a better understanding to policymakers about how to cooperate with developing countries and developed countries together in dealing with the issue of high volumes of aircraft emissions

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