Maddison, D.; (2001) Modelling distributed lag effects in epidemiological time series studies. (CSERGE Working Papers ). Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment (CSERGE): London, UK.

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Abstract

The paper argues that much of the existing literature on air pollution and mortality deals only with the transient effects of air pollution. Policy, on the other hand, needs to know when, whether and to what extent pollution-induced increases in mortality are reversed. This involves modelling the entire distributed lag effects of air pollution. Borrowing from econometrics this paper presents a method by which distributed lag effects can be estimated parsimoniously but plausibly estimated. The paper presents a time series study into the relationship between ambient levels of air pollution and daily mortality counts for Manchester employing this technique. Black Smoke is shown to have a highly significant effect on mortality counts in the short term. Nevertheless we find that 80 percent of the deaths attributable to BS would have occurred anyway within one week whereas the remaining 20 percent of individuals would otherwise have enjoyed a normal life expectancy.

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