Condeco Ferreira, C; (2008) Can the Portuguese National Plan for Energy Efficiency (PNAEE) reduce CO2 emissions of Bairro de Alvalade by 60% by 2050. Doctoral thesis , UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

Climate Change is a real and present danger which is by in large being caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. The international community has shown that it is aware of the need for urgency in addressing the causes of climate change and through the Kyoto Protocol, industrialized countries, at least those that have ratified it, have agreed to reduce GHG emissions by 5% based on 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012. Currently the largest contributing anthropogenic GHG to Climate Change is widely considered to be carbon dioxide (CO2) representing about 77% of the total emissions. (IPCC 2007). Furthermore most CO2 emissions are caused by the production of energy. Accordingly, to reach the target established under Kyoto, many countries have established and directed the core of their policies and measures to overhaul their energy requirements and production. There are some countries leading the way in this matter and implementing policies that will go further than the first commitment period such as Japan, the UK, France, the Netherlands aiming for a far more ambitious target of reducing CO2 emissions in 2050 by 60%. Portugal too, in 2002, has ratified the Kyoto Protocol and is committed on limiting the growth of its GHG emissions by 27% by 2012 based on 1990 levels. (Ferreira et al. 2008 pg4) Furthermore it has created a set of policies to help reduce emissions however current targets focus solely on 2012 and ignore any longer term scenarios. One of the policies is the National Plan for Energy Efficiency (PNAEE) that was released this year, 2008. The plan set a group of measures to help improve energy efficiency between the period 2008 and 2015. The purpose of this study is to determine if the measures proposed by the PNAEE are capable of achieving the same level of reductions of CO2 emissions that are the target for more ambitious countries like the UK, namely achieving a 60% reduction by 2050. The plan was implemented and tested on a chosen area of Lisbon, an experimental purpose built urbanization of the 1950's - Bairro de Alvalade. The urban area was studied and modelled to determine its current and future (2050) total CO2 emissions. It was found that although the plan has a positive effect on emissions and energy consumption it is far from sufficient to reduce CO2 emissions in 2050 by 60% and is therefore inadequate to tackle such ambitious commitments if ever considered. 60% on CO2 reduction by 2050 are though achievable if great improvements are implemented in all houses in order to reduce energy demand and also if the energy consumed is provided by a high percentage of renewables. Ambitious targets are possible to be reached but it takes major changes in houses characteristics, energy use and energy production.

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