Carter, D;
Charlett, A;
Conti, S;
Robotham, JV;
Johnson, AP;
Livermore, DM;
Fowler, T;
... Dobra, S; + view all
(2017)
A Risk Assessment of Antibiotic Pan-Drug-Resistance in the UK: Bayesian Analysis of an Expert Elicitation Study.
Antibiotics
, 6
(1)
, Article 9. 10.3390/antibiotics6010009.
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Abstract
To inform the UK antimicrobial resistance strategy, a risk assessment was undertaken of the likelihood, over a five-year time-frame, of the emergence and widespread dissemination of pan-drug-resistant (PDR) Gram-negative bacteria that would pose a major public health threat by compromising effective healthcare delivery. Subsequent impact over five- and 20-year time-frames was assessed in terms of morbidity and mortality attributable to PDR Gram-negative bacteraemia. A Bayesian approach, combining available data with expert prior opinion, was used to determine the probability of the emergence, persistence and spread of PDR bacteria. Overall probability was modelled using Monte Carlo simulation. Estimates of impact were also obtained using Bayesian methods. The estimated probability of widespread occurrence of PDR pathogens within five years was 0.2 (95% credibility interval (CrI): 0.07-0.37). Estimated annual numbers of PDR Gram-negative bacteraemias at five and 20 years were 6800 (95% CrI: 400-58,600) and 22,800 (95% CrI: 1500-160,000), respectively; corresponding estimates of excess deaths were 1900 (95% CrI: 0-23,000) and 6400 (95% CrI: 0-64,000). Over 20 years, cumulative estimates indicate 284,000 (95% CrI: 17,000-1,990,000) cases of PDR Gram-negative bacteraemia, leading to an estimated 79,000 (95% CrI: 0-821,000) deaths. This risk assessment reinforces the need for urgent national and international action to tackle antibiotic resistance.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | A Risk Assessment of Antibiotic Pan-Drug-Resistance in the UK: Bayesian Analysis of an Expert Elicitation Study |
| Location: | Switzerland |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.3390/antibiotics6010009 |
| Publisher version: | http://doi.org/10.3390/antibiotics6010009 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This article is published under Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian modelling, antibiotic resistance, risk assessment |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Infection and Immunity |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1544793 |
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