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Imprecise Best System Chances

Fenton-Glynn, L; (2017) Imprecise Best System Chances. In: Romeijn, J-W and Massimi, M and Schurz, G, (eds.) EPSA15 Selected Papers. European Studies in Philosophy of Science. (pp. pp. 297-308). Springer, Cham

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Abstract

Attention has been paid to the prospects of the Best System Analysis (BSA) for yielding high-level chances, including statistical mechanical and special science chances. But a foundational worry about the BSA lurks: there don't appear to be uniquely appropriate measures of the degree to which a system exhibits the theoretical virtues of simplicity, strength, and fit, nor a uniquely appropriate way of balancing the virtues in determining a best system. I argue that there's a set systems for our world that are tied-for-best given the limits of precision of the notions of simplicity, strength, fit, and balance. Some of these systems entail different high-level chances. I argue that the Best System analyst should conclude that (some of) the chances for our world are imprecise.

Type: Proceedings paper
Title: Imprecise Best System Chances
Event: European Philosophy of Science Association Conference 2015
Location: Dusseldorf, Germany
ISBN-13: 978-3-319-53729-0
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-53730-6_24
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-53730-6_24
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Imprecise probability, chance, Best System Analysis
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of Arts and Humanities > Dept of Philosophy
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1503920
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