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Mixture distributions in multi-state modelling: some considerations in a study of psoriatic arthritis

O'Keeffe, AG; Tom, BD; Farewell, VT; (2013) Mixture distributions in multi-state modelling: some considerations in a study of psoriatic arthritis. Statistics in Medicine , 32 (4) 600 - 619. 10.1002/sim.5529. Green open access

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Abstract

In many studies, interest lies in determining whether members of the study population will undergo a particular event of interest. Such scenarios are often termed 'mover-stayer' scenarios, and interest lies in modelling two sub-populations of 'movers' (those who have a propensity to undergo the event of interest) and 'stayers' (those who do not). In general, mover-stayer scenarios within data sets are accounted for through the use of mixture distributions, and in this paper, we investigate the use of various random effects distributions for this purpose. Using data from the University of Toronto psoriatic arthritis clinic, we present a multi-state model to describe the progression of clinical damage in hand joints of patients with psoriatic arthritis. We consider the use of mover-stayer gamma, inverse Gaussian and compound Poisson distributions to account for both the correlation amongst joint locations and the possible mover-stayer situation with regard to clinical hand joint damage. We compare the fits obtained from these models and discuss the extent to which a mover-stayer scenario exists in these data. Furthermore, we fit a mover-stayer model that allows a dependence of the probability of a patient being a stayer on a patient-level explanatory variable.

Type: Article
Title: Mixture distributions in multi-state modelling: some considerations in a study of psoriatic arthritis
Location: England
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1002/sim.5529
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.5529
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © The Authors 2013. This is an Open Access article published under the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY), which allows users to copy, distribute and transmit an article, adapt the article and make commercial use of the article. The CC BY license permits commercial and non-commercial re-use of an open access article, as long as the author is properly attributed (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Keywords: Arthritis, Psoriatic, Biostatistics, Disease Progression, Hand Joints, Humans, Likelihood Functions, Models, Biological, Models, Statistical, Poisson Distribution, Probability
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Statistical Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1457815
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