Valenzuela-Sánchez, A;
Delgado-Oyarzún, S;
Azat, C;
Schmidt, BR;
Sentenac, H;
Haddow, N;
Santana, B;
... Bacigalupe, LD; + view all
(2026)
Localized transmission of an aquatic pathogen drives hidden epidemics and population collapse in a terrestrial host.
Nature Ecology and Evolution
10.1038/s41559-025-02930-1.
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Abstract
Understanding fine-scale spatial variation in infection risk is central to epidemiology, disease ecology and conservation, yet its causes and consequences remain poorly understood. Here we investigate the dynamics of infection with the aquatic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) in several populations of the fully terrestrial Darwin’s frog (Rhinoderma darwinii) across southern Chile. Using high-resolution spatial capture–recapture data, long-term demographic monitoring and a spatial individual-based model parameterized with empirical estimates, we show that Bd infection in this system exhibits pronounced spatial heterogeneity at scales of only metres. This fine-scale clustering arises from localized transmission of an aquatic pathogen in a terrestrial system, driven by spatial proximity between infected and susceptible individuals. Such transmission generates clustered epidemics and can drive rapid subpopulation collapse in this species, with declines of up to 98% within a year. These epidemics can remain undetected at the broader population level because of spatial decoupling of infection among subpopulations. Our findings provide evidence of epidemic dynamics in a terrestrial Bd host and underscore a broader principle: observational scale fundamentally shapes our ability to detect and interpret infection dynamics in spatially structured populations.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Localized transmission of an aquatic pathogen drives hidden epidemics and population collapse in a terrestrial host |
| Location: | England |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41559-025-02930-1 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-025-02930-1 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences > Genetics, Evolution and Environment |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10220269 |
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