Esper, Sarah; (2025) Developing Vulnerability Functions for Tropical Cyclones. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

Wind vulnerability methodologies developed for the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region are concentrated in the judgement-based category. This is characteristic of regions where most of the housing portfolio comprises non-engineered construction, and accessing as-built information is difficult for developing empirical or engineering-based models. However, due to the high risk to the region from hurricanes, the lack of relevant vulnerability methodologies presents a challenge for accurate loss assessments and retrofitting policies. The primary output of this research work is a globally applicable methodology for surveying and numerically analysing the structural performance of existing non-engineered timber residential typologies under hurricane-level wind loads, enabling their reliable wind fragility assessment through empirical and engineering-based methods rather than heuristic approaches. This research adopted Dominica Hurricane Maria (2017) as a case study, assessing post-disaster damage data from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and developing an innovative, detailed field survey to undertake internal and external inspections of four residential typologies of varying wind fragility. The data collection was organised and conducted by the author, with support from local surveyors. An FE methodology is developed for the analytical wind vulnerability assessment of low-rise, non-engineered elevated timber buildings with lightweight hip roofs—the most vulnerable typology inspected. This novel method allows for tracking the failure progression of sub-standard structural elements across a building exposed to hurricane-level wind loads. The structural performance of the prototype model is validated against post-disaster damage data. The numerical results are used to construct an analytical wind vulnerability function, which captures damage at lower wind speeds and is hence considered more reliable than the empirically-derived wind vulnerability function. The analytical wind fragility functions developed for the prototype model are validated against existing fragility functions in the literature.

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