Senigaglia, V;
MacDonald, D Hatton;
Stoeckl, N;
Tian, J;
Leane, E;
Adams, V;
Baird, R;
... Ooi, C-S; + view all
(2025)
Managing tourism in Antarctica: impacts, forecasts, and suitable economic instruments.
Journal of Sustainable Tourism
10.1080/09669582.2025.2488958.
(In press).
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Abstract
Rapid growth in tourism to Antarctica has led the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties to launch a multi-year process to develop a framework for managing Antarctic tourism. Managing tourism in this region poses particular challenges, given the remoteness, ecological sensitivity and complex institutional systems. Approximately 65% of the current 120,000+ Antarctic cruise tourists travel on ‘expedition’ vessels that allow landfall. Landings are concentrated in relatively few locations, with potential for localised impacts. All vessels, including larger ‘cruise-only’ vessels that do not land passengers, generate carbon emissions, thus indirectly impacting the region. Using historical data, we forecast that tourist numbers could quadruple from current levels in ten years, with the largest growth occurring within the ‘landed’ sector. With these forecasts in mind, we consider a variety of price-based, quantity-based, and ‘market-friction’ economic instruments and assess their potential effectiveness (curtailing impacts or slowing growth in landings) and their potential acceptability/suitability (within existing governance systems) in this unique place. Our analysis suggests that it may be possible to forestall impacts by complementing existing regulations and guidelines with a combination of quantity-based instruments, nudging, and tighter certification. There are, nonetheless, practical difficulties, including the contrasting interests, values and political priorities of the twenty-nine Consultative Parties.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Managing tourism in Antarctica: impacts, forecasts, and suitable economic instruments |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1080/09669582.2025.2488958 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2025.2488958 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2025 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way. The terms on which this article has been published allow the posting of the Accepted Manuscript in a repository by the author(s) or with their consent. |
| Keywords: | Tourism governance; sustainability; market-based instruments; Antarctic Treaty System; tourism forecast |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > UCL Institute for Global Prosperity |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10219114 |
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