Sharmina, Maria;
Broad, Oliver;
Barrett, John;
Brand, Christian;
Garvey, Alice;
Kennard, Harry;
Norman, Jonathan;
... White, Emily; + view all
(2025)
Policymaker-led scenarios and public dialogue facilitate energy demand analysis for net-zero futures.
Nature Energy
10.1038/s41560-025-01898-3.
(In press).
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Abstract
Demand-side energy reductions have so far received less policy support than supply-side net-zero technologies. Here we undertake a demand-focused process for energy scenario analysis, led by policymakers and evaluated through public dialogue. We codesign, describe and model four societal futures that aim to achieve the UK’s 2050 net-zero target. The uniquely close involvement of policymakers leading the project generates markedly different narratives that reflect policymakers’ concerns while still leading to scenarios with reductions in energy demand of 18–45%—exceeding what policies normally suggest. By 2050, technology-focused systems cost 20–100% more than lower-demand ones. While intensive cocreation requires more complex interactions compared with academic-led research, it provides space for important, and otherwise absent, energy demand conversations. This work demonstrates how engaging policymakers to colead energy scenarios can challenge conventional policy assumptions on energy demand while offering an approach to support global climate mitigation efforts.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Policymaker-led scenarios and public dialogue facilitate energy demand analysis for net-zero futures |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41560-025-01898-3 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-025-01898-3 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10217542 |
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