Pintér, Jakub; (2025) Brexit, Internal Security and Societal Change: Anticipating Organised Crime Threats Emanating From the United Kingdom’s Withdrawal From the European Union. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

Text (Thesis (redacted)) Jakub Pinter_PhD Thesis_FINAL_Redacted.pdf - Accepted Version Access restricted to UCL open access staff until 1 December 2026. Download (4MB)

Abstract

Brexit marks the first time in history that a state has withdrawn its membership from the European Union. While questions of sovereignty, identity and economy took the centre stage in discussions surrounding Brexit, much less attention was paid to Brexit’s impact on crime in general and organised crime in particular. This is despite the fact that British authorities consider organised crime to be a national security threat that causes more harm than any other national security threat. To address this issue, this thesis firstly seeks to identify criminal opportunities for organised crime in the United Kingdom that emanated or may emanate from Brexit, and secondly, to identify prevention measures that can mitigate these opportunities as well as increase overall resilience of United Kingdom to organised crime. To do this, the thesis firstly conducts a systematic review of academic and grey literature. After taking stock of the existing research, the thesis continues with a policy Delphi study. The policy Delphi study elicits opinions of experts to gain new insights about the effect of Brexit on organised crime opportunities. It also identifies potential prevention measures along with stakeholders that can play a role in forestalling organised crime. Finally, the Delphi assesses which opportunities for organised crime are most likely to materialise in the next ten years, and which prevention measures and stakeholders are best suited to prevent them. The Delphi study shows that the new border regime and reduced cross-border cooperation may be particularly important in the formation of criminal opportunities. Building on these results, the thesis performs a pre-mortem analysis of organised crime opportunities related to the new border regime and cross-border cooperation to explore these issues in greater detail and to propose concrete measures that can strengthen cross-border cooperation and reduce opportunities for organised crime in the UK.

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