Asllani, Alban;
Tzivanakis, Nikolaos;
Schneider, Friedrich;
(2025)
Unveiling the shadows: tracing the informal economy in the Balkans from 1996 to 2021.
Post-Communist Economies
10.1080/14631377.2025.2566418.
(In press).
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Abstract
Using the MIMIC model, we analyse the informal economy (IE) in Balkan countries from 1996 to 2021. Results show a decline in the IE, which started at approximately 35% in 1996 but remained relatively high at over 29% of GDP by 2021. This was driven by regulatory burden, financial freedom, urbanisation, macroeconomic factors, and government size. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a rise in informal activity in 2020, increasing by 1–3% points compared to 2019. This study highlights the role of policy-driven and macroeconomic factors in shaping the IE, addressing gaps in understanding post-reform socio-economic developments in the region.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Unveiling the shadows: tracing the informal economy in the Balkans from 1996 to 2021 |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1080/14631377.2025.2566418 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2025.2566418 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © 2025 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way. The terms on which this article has been published allow the posting of the Accepted Manuscript in a repository by the author(s) or with their consent. |
| Keywords: | Informal economy; shadow economy; MIMIC model; Balkan countries; economic transition; post-reform estimates |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > UCL Institute for Global Prosperity |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10217064 |
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