Diekmann, Yoan;
Gillis, Rosalind E;
Lu, Ziye;
Rudzinski, Anna;
De Iorio, Maria;
Thomas, Mark G;
(2026)
Bayesian Inference of Sex-Specific Mortality Profiles and Product Yields from Unsexed Cattle Zooarchaeological Remains.
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory
, 33
(1)
, Article 13. 10.1007/s10816-025-09749-x.
Preview |
Text
s10816-025-09749-x.pdf - Published Version Download (1MB) | Preview |
Abstract
Zooarchaeological age-at-death profiles for domesticated ruminants can be inferred from tooth eruption, replacement, and wear. These profiles contain important information on slaughter management and have been used informally to infer the goals of past husbandry strategies. In principle, sex-specific survival curves could inform on various productivity parameters, including herd growth rates and sustainability, milk and meat yields, macronutrient and calorie yields, and feed consumed. Knowledge of these parameter values would allow identification of differences in husbandry economics in different archaeological contexts. However, archaeological age-at-death profiles are rarely sex-specific and are often derived from small sample sizes. As such, challenges remain in inferring sex-specific survival curves using explicit models that account for sampling uncertainty. We present a Bayesian inference approach for inferring sex-specific survival curves from unsexed cattle zooarchaeological age-at-death profiles that can accommodate data from any combination of age class boundaries. Our approach relies on the assumption that asymmetric sex-specific slaughter leads to a change in sex ratio over time, which we inform from slaughter practices in modern unimproved cattle herds. By combining inferred sex-specific archaeological survival curves with ethnographic productivity data from modern unimproved cattle, we are able to estimate herd growth rate, milk and meat yields, macronutrient and calorie yields, and feed consumed per animal. We apply our approach to zooarchaeological age-at-death profiles previously proposed to prioritise milk or meat production and to a set of profiles from ten Neolithic sites located across Europe. We infer that there was scope for improvement in prehistoric slaughter management.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Bayesian Inference of Sex-Specific Mortality Profiles and Product Yields from Unsexed Cattle Zooarchaeological Remains |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s10816-025-09749-x |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s10816-025-09749-x |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
| Keywords: | Age-at-death; Bayesian inference; MCMC; Paleoeconomics; Zooarchaeology |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences > Genetics, Evolution and Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Statistical Science |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10216965 |
Archive Staff Only
 |
View Item |
