Hughes, Nick;
Nyambe-Mubanga, Mulima;
Mapulanga, Willard;
Hazemba, Malonga;
Chileshe, Stephen;
Tembo, Bernard;
Watson, Jim;
... Crentsil, Aba Obrumah; + view all
(2025)
TOWARDS RESILIENT AND INCLUSIVE CLIMATE COMPATIBLE DEVELOPMENT: A PARTICIPATORY, MIXED-METHOD SCENARIOS APPROACH FOR ZAMBIA.
Global Environmental Change
, 95
, Article 103072. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103072.
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Abstract
Climate compatible development aims to align climate change mitigation and adaptation with social and economic development. Successful climate compatible development must be socially inclusive, and resilient to external shocks. Zambia is a country at the frontline of climate change, with multiple development challenges, and ambitions to pursue a climate compatible development pathway. Scenarios are tools with a long history of application in strategic planning, and may be suitable tools to help countries explore climate compatible development. Therefore, we developed a novel participatory, mixed-method scenario process, to explore pathways of resilient and inclusive climate compatible development for Zambia. We took a stakeholder-led participatory approach, and combined qualitative scenario development techniques with quantitative energy system modelling. We compared a scenario characterised by centralised governance and infrastructure, large-scale export-led industries and continued urbanisation, with one characterised by greater decentralisation of governance, investment decisions and economic development strategies, which maintains the viability of rural livelihoods and slows the urbanisation trend. The scenarios provide a framework for considering opportunities and risks in planning for climate compatible development, and suggest that Zambian decision-makers should: test infrastructure investments and long-term economic plans for both climate and economic resilience; pursue mutually beneficial, equitable development partnerships with like-minded international partners; and appropriately allocate responsibility to different scales of governance and ensure coordination between them. The issues highlighted by the scenarios are of relevance to other countries facing similar challenges. The paper demonstrates that a participatory, mixed-method scenario approach provides a useful framework to explore climate compatible development.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | TOWARDS RESILIENT AND INCLUSIVE CLIMATE COMPATIBLE DEVELOPMENT: A PARTICIPATORY, MIXED-METHOD SCENARIOS APPROACH FOR ZAMBIA |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103072 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103072 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
| Keywords: | Zambia, Scenario, Climate Compatible Development, Mixed-Method, Participatory, Resilient, Inclusive |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10216085 |
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