Yin, Zhiqiang; (2025) Methodology and application of an integrated modelling framework for river flood risk assessment under climate change and socio-economic development. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

Text Zhiqiang Yin_PhD Thesis_Edited Version.pdf - Accepted Version Access restricted to UCL open access staff until 1 November 2028. Download (29MB)

Abstract

This thesis establishes an integrated modelling framework that incorporates climate, hydrological, hydraulic, flood damage, and economic models to assess river flood risk under different climate change and socio-economic development scenarios. The framework quantifies not only direct flood impacts to people, land, and physical assets, but also the wider indirect economic costs that propagate through supply and trade networks, which are less examined by previous research. The indirect costs are assessed by an input-output economic model called the Flood Footprint model developed in this thesis. The modelling framework is applied to three case studies: a national-level flood risk assessment in five low- and middle-income countries (Ethiopia, Egypt, Ghana, India, and Brazil), China’s city-level risk assessment for over 300 cities, and a global-scale flood risk evaluation. First, the results of these case studies show that flood impacts increase rapidly with global warming and that curbing warming to lower levels can provide substantial benefits in terms of avoided impacts. Second, socio-economic development plays an important role in flood risk changes. It drives flood impacts in absolute terms to rise considerably. As for relative impacts (e.g., economic costs as a percentage of GDP), socio-economic growth can lead to reduced future flood risk when it outpaces the growth in climate change-induced flood hazards. Otherwise, climate change plays a larger role. Third, flood consequences are unevenly distributed both within a country (e.g., China) and globally. At the global scale, the greatest impacts (both absolute and relative) are observed in many low- and lower middle-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa, southern Asia, and south-eastern Asia, revealing large risk inequalities between more developed and underdeveloped regions. Fourth, this thesis finds that floods can have broader indirect economic implications that extend far beyond direct economic damages and affected areas. Even regions with low levels of direct costs or that are not directly affected by floods can still feel indirect economic impacts that cascade through trade networks. This highlights the importance of including indirect loss estimation into flood risk assessments and that climate mitigation and adaptation strategies should consider hazard-induced supply chain disruptions. Finally, this thesis demonstrates that global adaptation through upgrading current flood protection levels can significantly reduce flood impacts.

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