Cels, Jonas; (2025) Assessing Tsunami Vulnerability in the Sri Lankan School System. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

This thesis marks the 20th anniversary of the Indian Ocean tsunami, one of the deadliest and consequential catastrophes in human history. The disaster offers a unique opportunity to reevaluate tsunami risk and resilience within a disaster cycle characterised by low frequency, high impact events. Because schools play a central role in preparation for, mitigating, and recovering from disasters, this thesis will assess their physical fragility and institutional preparedness to tsunami risk in the context of Sri Lanka. This work presents a mixed-method approach to developing strategies to improve the resilience of the school system, beginning with an understanding of its multihazard preparedness. A series of interviews with school principals and local disaster management and education officials evaluating school multihazard preparedness finds why schools are not prepared for a major tsunami. The surveys highlight that regular evacuation drills are not regularly practised. Improving system resilience also requires a clearer picture of the physical risks to the system. This Thesis presents a school tsunami exposure survey, combining remote sensing with physical surveys using a novel rapid visual survey tool for tsunami exposed schools. This survey found that over 430 schools remain directly exposed to tsunamis in Sri Lanka. Although these schools are heavily dependent on tsunami early warning towers to receive their warning, only half are in direct earshot. This thesis systematically assesses the physical vulnerability of Sri Lanka's schools using the purpose-developed tsunami-toolkit. The toolkit provides a novel framework and functional tool for assessing the tsunami response capacity and fragility of onshore structures. The tsunami-toolkit advances the field of tsunami engineering and extends to the general use of engineers. The thesis estimates potential losses for schools in Batticaloa and Ampara regions should the 2004 tsunami occur again. The effect of physical interventions on the fragility of schools and to overall losses is investigated. Finally, the thesis concludes with a discussion of strategies for policymakers to strengthen school resilience through physical and organizational means. This discussion follows a workshop in Colombo with stakeholders commemorating the 20th anniversary of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

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