Brownhall, Indigo; Marino, Michele; Bhattarai, Santosh; Kaffine, Daniel; Lifson, Miles; Rao, Akhil; Moretto, Mark; ... Linares, Richard; + view all Brownhall, Indigo; Marino, Michele; Bhattarai, Santosh; Kaffine, Daniel; Lifson, Miles; Rao, Akhil; Moretto, Mark; Lavezzi, Giovanni; Linares, Richard; - view fewer (2025) Enhancing Space Debris Integrated Assessment Models to support transdisciplinary policy modelling in LEO. In: Proceedings of the 2025 AAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference. American Astronautical Society (AAS) & American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA): Boston, MA, USA.

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Abstract

The accelerating use of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) has prompted growing interest in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that combine physical space environment dynamics with economic actor behaviour to inform long-term sustainability policy. However, current IAM implementations often suffer from key limitations, including simplified economic assumptions and inadequate orbital representations in debris propagation models. This paper presents a series of enhancements to the OPUS IAM framework, targeting three core improvements: (i) multi-species economic optimization in OPUS, (ii) a new flux-based elliptical orbit propagator for MOCAT-SSEM, and (iii) improved collision and debris modelling through binning of NASA’s Standard Satellite Break-Up Model (SSBM) Evolve 4.0 into eccentricity and semi-major axis space. First, we extend OPUS to allow endogenous launch decisions for multiple satellite species, each with distinct physical and economic parameters. A calibration routine using least-squares optimisation was developed to estimate species-specific revenue and elasticity coefficients, using observed satellite populations from 2017–2025. The resulting per-satellite annual revenues were $815,637, $400,777, and $87,311 for constellation, non-constellation, and CubeSat satellite species respectively, matching observed 2025 values precisely. Second, we create a new flux-based propagation model using semi-analytic drag dynamics in semi-major axis and eccentricity space. Validation against the MOCAT-MC high-fidelity propagator—tracking 960 rocket bodies over 100 years—yields an

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