Cao, Qilin; Song, Junnian; Liu, Chaoshuo; Yang, Wei; Yabar, Helmut; Zheng, Heran; Mi, Zhifu; (2025) Expediting co-benefits of tailored municipal solid waste management strategies globally. Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-025-01613-w. (In press).

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Abstract

Managing municipal solid waste (MSW) amid global environmental and public health concerns is increasingly challenging with population growth and urbanization. Developing tailored MSW management strategies that target environmental co-benefits within diverse national development and waste composition contexts is complex and urgently required. We combine a machine-learning-derived MSW generation database with life cycle inventories of full technical modules to model a process-, component- and technology-specific MSW management system. The human health, ecosystem quality and resource scarcity co-benefits in 171 countries by 2050 are assessed in 11 scenarios integrating hierarchical management intensities with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Results highlight that 63.9% of health damage can be mitigated, ecosystem damage can be completely offset and reversed to net benefits, and resource benefits can increase by 137.5% during 2020–2050 in the ideal sustainability-focused scenario. Prioritizing lower- and middle-income countries (such as India), which could cumulatively contribute 40.5%, 37.8% and 27.3% of health, ecosystem and resource benefits, respectively, over 30 years, is crucial to averting prolonged damage peak and neutralization by accelerating transformation of their MSW management systems.

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