Jafari, Zahra;
(2025)
Mathematical Modelling of Refugee Flows and Instability.
Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).
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Abstract
Understanding conflict-induced displacement and its distribution in time and space is a central issue in the study of forced migration, for both theoretical and practical reasons. Of all types of migration, conflict-induced migration is associated with some of the most challenging discourse. After the sharp increase of migrants in Europe in 2015 and a sequence of ill-informed policies, the lack of evidence-based frameworks in policy-making became clear. Conflict-induced migration is a context in which quantitative analysis and modelling will have major implications for improving migration policies, development planning and humanitarian response. In this thesis, techniques from mathematical modelling are used to contribute to quantitative understanding of conflict-induced displacement and provide evidence-based frameworks that can potentially inform policies. This thesis begins by presenting a brief introduction to data challenges and existing data sets in conflict-induced migration. Using the introduced data, an in-silico modelling framework is then introduced which incorporates empirical data during initialisation, calibration and validation. The model parameters are calibrated to data and the results are validated using cross-validation. The model is further used as a tool to measure the impact of several policy interventions on displacement patterns under a range of geopolitical configurations. Next, a dynamical system model is introduced as an alternative modelling approach in understanding the macro-level characteristics of conflict-induced migration. Analysis is then presented of the relationship between the properties of the model and the long-term evolution of migration flows. Considering the experience of refugees subsequent to their move, the last chapter provides a spatio-temporal analysis of anti-refugee incidents in Germany and uncovers a spatio-temporal contagion dynamic that can potentially inform preventive strategies to improve safety and integration of refugees.
| Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Qualification: | Ph.D |
| Title: | Mathematical Modelling of Refugee Flows and Instability |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © The Author 2025. Original content in this thesis is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) Licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). Any third-party copyright material present remains the property of its respective owner(s) and is licensed under its existing terms. Access may initially be restricted at the author’s request. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Security and Crime Science |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10213446 |
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