Matthew, Chris;
(2025)
Whole-systems energy modelling perspectives on net zero in the
Scottish islands.
Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).
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Abstract
Meeting net zero targets will require changes to energy systems, but given the complex dynamics and interactions, the optimal technology mix is uncertain. Whole systems energy modelling can help to understand this and inform policy decisions. Traditionally, this focuses on energy, which could neglect synergies though improved resource utilisation in a circular economy. In this work, modelling of biowaste-to-energy will be integrated with an hourly and net zero supply and demand model of the Scottish islands as a case study. Three sub-models are developed: demand, biowaste-to-energy, and supply. Firstly, a 100% sample, bottom-up demand model for domestic, commercial, industrial and transport sectors with an hourly resolution is described. Secondly, a techno-economic assessment of the availability and cost-effectiveness of energy from island biowaste is conducted. Thirdly, the generation and interconnections of the islands are modelled. Each are validated with recorded data and then combined in the overall net-zero model in PLEXOS, an energy systems optimisation software. Four scenarios are developed based on current and potential policies, which all achieve net zero through varying combinations and scales of technologies including renewables, storage, hydrogen production, biogas, energy efficiency measures. The results demonstrate the trade-off between different technologies and their scales. Without investment in efficiency or flexibility, transmission and distribution infrastructure will require significant upgrading. Excessive curtailment of local wind and grid upgrades could be offset by electrolysis, either to meet local demand or potentially export to the mainland. Biogas produced from waste could be key in offsetting hydrogen demand and improving resilience. A wider combination and deployment of distributed technologies could enable greater security, independence, and community acceptance, but would require much support than existing or announced policies.
| Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Qualification: | Ph.D |
| Title: | Whole-systems energy modelling perspectives on net zero in the Scottish islands |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © The Author 2025. Original content in this thesis is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) Licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). Any third-party copyright material present remains the property of its respective owner(s) and is licensed under its existing terms. Access may initially be restricted at the author’s request. |
| Keywords: | Net zero, Decarbonisation, Scotland, UK |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10212930 |
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