Nahm, Sharon H;
Kiely, Belinda E;
O'Connell, Rachel L;
Lee, Yeh Chen;
Davis, Alison;
Avall-Lundqvist, Elisabeth;
Berek, Jonathan S;
... GCIG Symptom Benefit Group; + view all
(2025)
Prognostic significance and accuracy of oncologists' estimates of survival time in recurrent ovarian cancer.
International Journal of Gynecological Cancer
, 35
(1)
, Article 100030. 10.1016/j.ijgc.2024.100030.
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Abstract
OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the accuracy of oncologists' estimates of expected survival time in recurrent ovarian cancer. METHODS: Oncologists estimated expected survival time at baseline for each patient, who were then followed up for survival time. We hypothesized that oncologists' estimates of expected survival time would be independently significant predictors of survival, unbiased (approximately equal proportions [50%] living longer versus shorter than their expected survival time), or imprecise (<30% within 0.75-1.33 times their observed survival time). We also hypothesized that simple multiples (0.25, 0.5, 2, and 3) of each expected survival time would define ranges that accurately described 3 scenarios for survival time: worst-case (10% of participants with the shortest survival), typical (middle 50%), and best-case (10% with the longest survival) scenarios. RESULTS: There were 898 participants; the median (interquartile range) for expected survival time was 12 months (range; 8-14) and the median for observed survival time was 13 months (range; 12-14). Oncologists' estimates of expected survival time were independently significant predictors of observed survival time (HR 0.96 per month, 95% CI 0.94-0.98, p < .0001). As hypothesized, 55% lived longer than their expected survival time, 45% shorter than their expected survival time, and 23% of estimates of expected survival time were within 0.75 to 1.33 times their observed survival time. Simple multiples of the expected survival time provided ranges that accurately described 3 scenarios for survival time: 7% of patients died within 0.25 times their expected survival time (worst-case), 53% lived between 0.5 and 2 times their expected survival time (typical), and 13% lived longer than 3 times their expected survival time (best case). CONCLUSION: Oncologists' estimates of expected survival time were independently significant predictors of survival time. Simple multiples of the expected survival time provided accurate ranges for scenarios for survival that are useful for explaining prognosis.
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