Klebe, Finn L; (2025) Accomplice or Spoiler? Assessing the Logic of Formal and Informal Alliances During Times of Repression. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

Text Thesis_FinnKlebe_25_07_2025.pdf - Accepted Version Access restricted to UCL open access staff until 1 August 2026. Download (13MB)

Abstract

Why do some organizations enter costly formal alliances during times of repression, while others only maintain informal links? This thesis examines (in)formal alliances of opposition organizations, focusing on the anti-apartheid struggle in South Africa. Alliances in today’s conflict settings have been shown to affect conflict intensity and duration. Existing research often suggests that alliances are unstable and can break down easily. My thesis investigates the puzzle why organizations nevertheless engage in the formation of costly alliances during the most trying times – when facing repression. I conceptualize informal (solidarity, co-participation, co-membership) and formal (declared alliance, common organizations) alliances. I argue that organizations enter (in)formal alliances to send a signal of capacity to the government and their own constituency. Formal alliances, despite their high costs and potentially ‘inviting’ further repression, send a strong signal of capacity to the government as well as the constituency that threatens to disengage amidst repression. Informal alliances send a weaker signal but afford plausible deniability (e.g. for cross-ideological alliances). I expect alliances during times of repression to be more formal and to reach broader constituencies. That is, organizations formalize their alliances and collaborate with organizations of different ideologies, tactics, and movements. To test my argument empirically, I construct a novel dataset with network data for 151 anti-apartheid organizations (parties, unions, religious-, student-, civic-, armed organizations) and leverage meeting minutes, strategy papers, pamphlets, letters, and speeches collected during archival fieldwork in South Africa. I find that organization leaders strategically distinguish (in)formal alliances and formalize their alliances amidst repression to broaden constituency support – acknowledging the costs associated with it. While the death of organizations in conflict presents a constant peril, costly alliances present an opportunity to survive. The findings shed light on the overcoming of repression in different political contexts – including our contemporary times.

Download activity - last month

Export as CSVXMLJSON

Download activity - last 12 months

Export as JSONCSVXML

Downloads by country - last 12 months

Export as JSONXMLCSV

Archive Staff Only

View Item