Thomas, Helen;
Marincioni, Valentina;
Orr, Scott Allan;
(2025)
Multi-determinant climate change risk assessment for heritage: A review of current approaches and future needs.
Climate Risk Management
, 49
, Article 100727. 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100727.
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Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change is radically changing the way we relate to and interact with our shared histories. Culturally important sites have already been damaged and lost due to our changing climate and this will only continue. Considering the extent of climate change impacts, it is vital that assessing the risks of climate change looks beyond the changing prevalence of climatic hazards, such as sea level rise, to consider the predisposition of the historic environment to be impacted by the hazard, the location of heritage sites and their relative exposure, adaptive responses and their associated risks, and the cultural significance of the places themselves. This review provides an overview of current climate change risk assessments for heritage, with specific attention paid to how the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) risk framework, and its risk determinants (exposure, hazard, vulnerability, and response) have been conceptualised. It systematically reviews scholarly literature published between 2017 and 2022 to determine: the uptake of the four risk determinants; how these terms are represented; and the methods for combining these elements into a dynamic risk framework which can be scaled to assess multiple sites. Significant advances have been made in identifying and preparing for the future impacts of climate change, but there is still an imbalance towards single-site risk assessments — particularly for the historic built environment. Furthermore, the review identifies and provides summaries of multi-determinant risk assessments that engage with the complexities of heritage futures beyond just changing climatic hazards to better understand the impacts of climate change on the historic environment in its totality.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Multi-determinant climate change risk assessment for heritage: A review of current approaches and future needs |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100727 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2025.100727 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
| Keywords: | Historic environment, Climate adaptation, Climate mitigation, Disaster risk reduction |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10211729 |
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