Cole, Rebecca;
Wan, Kai;
Murage, Peninah;
Macintyre, Helen L;
Hajat, Shakoor;
Heaviside, Clare;
(2025)
Projections of heat related mortality under combined climate and socioeconomic adaptation scenarios for England and Wales.
PLoS Climate
, 4
(7)
, Article e0000553. 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000553.
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Abstract
This study projects heat-related mortality in England and Wales at Government region level under combined climate and socioeconomic scenarios, focusing on the implications of different pathways on adaptive capacity and resilience. Using UK specific climate projections and socioeconomic narratives, and employing a timeseries regression analysis we estimated the impacts of consistent pairs of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) on future heat-related health burdens. Our findings indicate significant increases in heat-related mortality under high emissions scenarios, with the highest burden observed in the RCP8.5-SSP5 scenario (2050s: 10,317, 2060s: 19,478, 2070s: 34,027), due to combined high temperatures and population growth and ageing in this scenario. Conversely, the lowest burden is seen under RCP2.6-SSP1 (2050s: 3,007, 2060s: 4,004, 2070s: 4,592), reflecting effective adaptation and lower warming levels. These values represent an increases from a baseline of 634 annual heat related deaths (1981–2021). The contribution of individual drivers, regional variations and the impact of potential power outages during heatwaves were also examined. These projections highlight the combined role of mitigation and adaptation, with a focus on resilience, in response to climate change and demonstrate that adaptation beyond the observed bounds will be required to limit heat related mortality to the baseline level even under low emission scenarios.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Projections of heat related mortality under combined climate and socioeconomic adaptation scenarios for England and Wales |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000553 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000553 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright: © 2025 Cole et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
| Keywords: | Science & Technology, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, TEMPERATURE, UK |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10211465 |
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