Gasim, Anwar A.;
(2025)
The impacts of energy subsidy reform and determinants of successful outcomes: a focus on Saudi Arabia.
Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).
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Abstract
Saudi Arabia is a leading oil and gas producer and one of the largest energy consumers in the Middle East. Its energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions have risen sharply over the past decades, with population growth, economic development, and energy subsidies being key drivers. Such growth in energy demand is not sustainable. Energy subsidy reform is a tool that policymakers can use to encourage resource, fiscal, and environmental sustainability. Saudi Arabia recently implemented two waves of energy subsidy reform, and it appears to have plans for further reforms. However, such reforms can be difficult to implement. Policymakers need an in-depth understanding of the impacts of energy subsidy reform to move forward with implementation. They also need an understanding of the factors that lead to successful or unsuccessful reform outcomes. This thesis models the impacts of energy subsidy reform in Saudi Arabia. I start by quantifying the consumer response to changes in the prices of energy products. I use the structural time series model to econometrically model energy demand across five sectors and 15 energy products in Saudi Arabia. I then employ the estimated price elasticities in microeconomic analyses to measure the fiscal, economic, environmental, and welfare impacts of past and future reforms. This thesis also examines the factors that determine reform outcomes through a global review of past attempts at reform. I define a successful energy subsidy reform as one that does not lead to social unrest or is not reversed. I build a global dataset capturing countries’ experiences with reform, on which I draw lessons and run logistic regressions. Qualitative and quantitative analyses are thus combined to understand how factors like the size of the energy price increase, economic performance, or the quality of governance influence the odds of a successful reform outcome.
| Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Qualification: | Ph.D |
| Title: | The impacts of energy subsidy reform and determinants of successful outcomes: a focus on Saudi Arabia |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © The Author 2025. Original content in this thesis is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) Licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). Any third-party copyright material present remains the property of its respective owner(s) and is licensed under its existing terms. Access may initially be restricted at the author’s request. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10210452 |
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