Padilla, Lace;
Dryhurst, Sarah;
Hosseinpour, Helia;
Kruczkiewicz, Andrew;
(2021)
Multiple Hazard Uncertainty Visualization Challenges and Paths Forward.
Frontiers in Psychology
, 12
, Article 579207. 10.3389/fpsyg.2021.579207.
Preview |
Text
fpsyg-12-579207.pdf - Accepted Version Download (2MB) | Preview |
Abstract
Making decisions with uncertainty is challenging for the general public, policymakers, and even highly trained scientists. Nevertheless, when faced with the need to respond to a potential hazard, people must make high-risk decisions with uncertainty. In some cases, people have to consider multiple hazards with various types of uncertainties. Multiple hazards can be interconnected by location, time, and/or environmental systems, and the hazards may interact, producing complex relationships among their associated uncertainties. The interaction between multiple hazards and their uncertainties can have nonlinear effects, where the resultant risk and uncertainty are greater than the sum of the risk and uncertainty associated with individual hazards. Effectively communicating the uncertainties related to such complicated systems should be a high priority because the frequency and variability of multiple hazard events due to climate change continue to increase. However, the communication of multiple hazard uncertainties and their interactions remains largely unexplored. The lack of practical guidance on conveying multiple hazard uncertainties is likely due in part to the field’s vast expanse, making it challenging to identify entry points. Here, we offer a perspective on three critical challenges related to uncertainty communication across various multiple hazard contexts to galvanize the research community. We advocate for systematic considerations of multiple hazard uncertainty communication that focus on trade-offs between complexity and factors, including mental effort, trust, and usability.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Multiple Hazard Uncertainty Visualization Challenges and Paths Forward |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.3389/fpsyg.2021.579207 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.579207 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © 2021 Padilla, Dryhurst, Hosseinpour and Kruczkiewicz. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
| Keywords: | Compound risks, hazards, uncertainty, visualization, multiple, cognitive effort, trust, communication |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10209123 |
Archive Staff Only
 |
View Item |
