Pescaroli, G;
McMillan, L;
Gordon, M;
Aydin, NY;
Comes, T;
Maraschini, M;
Oliveira Palmas, J;
... Linkov, I; + view all
(2025)
Definitions and Taxonomy for High Impact Low Probability (HILP) and Outlier Events.
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
, Article 105504. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105504.
(In press).
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Abstract
High Impact Low Probability events (HILPs), often referred to as outliers, are becoming more important in disaster management because they are linked to complex risks and tipping points in interconnected systems. Recent events, such as the cascading effects of the coronavirus pandemic, rising uncertainties from global geopolitical instability, and successive and concurrent extremes driven by climate change, underscore the limitations of relying solely on severe but plausible scenarios for risk practitioners and policymakers. Despite the critical need to integrate HILPs into risk assessment models and emergency preparedness, the field is fragmented, with inconsistent definitions and methodologies. We present a perspective developed under the HORIZON AGILE project (AGnostic risk management for high Impact Low probability Events), which introduces two comprehensive definitions of HILPs and a taxonomy designed to enhance risk assessment, resilience analysis, and crisis management. We provide a validated scientific definition for the academic community and an operational definition tailored for practitioners and stakeholders. Additionally, our taxonomy offers a structured framework to address outlier events that often fall below traditional risk thresholds, ensuring that low-probability, high-impact scenarios with cascading and concurrent dynamics are effectively integrated into risk registers, legislation, and standards development. This study shows how this approach improves methods like stress testing and scenario modelling, especially for the loss of critical services. This empowers policymakers, practitioners, and stakeholders to include more scenarios in their strategies, enhancing resilience and preparedness.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Definitions and Taxonomy for High Impact Low Probability (HILP) and Outlier Events |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105504 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105504 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10209025 |
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