Shah, ASV;
Keene, SJ;
Pennells, L;
Kaptoge, S;
Kimenai, DM;
Walker, M;
Halley, JD;
... McAllister, D; + view all
(2025)
Cardiac Troponins and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction: An Individual-Participant-Data Meta-Analysis.
Journal of the American College of Cardiology
, 85
(14)
pp. 1471-1484.
10.1016/j.jacc.2025.02.016.
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Text (Author Accepted Manuscript)
Wannamethee_Cardiac troponins and cardiovascular disease risk prediction_AAM.pdf - Accepted Version Access restricted to UCL open access staff until 8 April 2026. Download (618kB) |
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Text (Supplementary Material)
Wannamethee_Cardiac troponins and cardiovascular disease risk prediction_SuppM.zip - Accepted Version Access restricted to UCL open access staff until 8 April 2026. Download (5MB) |
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The extent to which high-sensitivity cardiac troponin can predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) is uncertain. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to quantify the potential advantage of adding information on cardiac troponins to conventional risk factors in the prevention of CVD. METHODS: We meta-analyzed individual-participant data from 15 cohorts, comprising 62,150 participants without prior CVD. We calculated HRs, measures of risk discrimination, and reclassification after adding cardiac troponin T (cTnT) or I (cTnI) to conventional risk factors. The primary outcome was first-onset CVD (ie, coronary heart disease or stroke). We then modeled the implications of initiating statin therapy using incidence rates from 2.1 million individuals from the United Kingdom. RESULTS: Among participants with cTnT or cTnI measurements, 8,133 and 3,749 incident CVD events occurred during a median follow-up of 11.8 and 9.8 years, respectively. HRs for CVD per 1-SD higher concentration were 1.31 (95% CI: 1.25-1.37) for cTnT and 1.26 (95% CI: 1.19-1.33) for cTnI. Addition of cTnT or cTnI to conventional risk factors was associated with C-index increases of 0.015 (95% CI: 0.012-0.018) and 0.012 (95% CI: 0.009-0.015) and continuous net reclassification improvements of 6% and 5% in cases and 22% and 17% in noncases. One additional CVD event would be prevented for every 408 and 473 individuals screened based on statin therapy in those whose CVD risk is reclassified from intermediate to high risk after cTnT or cTnI measurement, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Measurement of cardiac troponin results in a modest improvement in the prediction of first-onset CVD that may translate into population health benefits if used at scale.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Cardiac Troponins and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction: An Individual-Participant-Data Meta-Analysis |
| Location: | United States |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jacc.2025.02.016 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacc.2025.02.016 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher's terms and conditions. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health > Primary Care and Population Health |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10208207 |
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