Kim, Seokyoung;
Dodds, Paul E;
Butnar, Isabela;
(2025)
Economic feasibility of low-carbon ethylene, propylene and jet fuel production.
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
, 216
, Article 115648. 10.1016/j.rser.2025.115648.
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Abstract
Jet fuel and key chemical building blocks (e.g. ethylene) cannot easily be substituted with zero-carbon alternatives and remain interconnected in a low-carbon future. Fischer-Tropsch and methanol synthesis offer pathways toward large-scale production of low-carbon synthetic hydrocarbons. This paper estimates the future costs of low-carbon ethylene, propylene, and jet fuel via those routes with feedstocks of either biomass or electricity with captured CO2. It finds while biobased hydrocarbons could fall below 1.1 USD/kg, electricity-based hydrocarbons using atmospheric CO2, even with the optimistic views, result in 4 USD/kg for ethylene, 2.3 USD/kg for propylene and 2.9 USD/kg for jet fuel. Using industry-captured CO2 as the carbon source could cut production costs by 28 %, but its future availability is likely to be limited. Offsetting existing hydrocarbon industries through direct air carbon capture and storage is projected to be more economical compared to electricity-based hydrocarbons. This research highlights the necessity for transitioning to a net zero power system to reduce electricity prices. As these technologies each produce multiple products and their business cases depend on sales of all products, a coherent cross-sectoral strategy to incentivise low-carbon fuels and chemicals would be valuable to ensure that the overall production reflects demand throughout a low-carbon transition.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Economic feasibility of low-carbon ethylene, propylene and jet fuel production |
| Location: | UK |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.rser.2025.115648 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2025.115648 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. under a Creative Commons license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
| Keywords: | Techno-economic analysis, Synthetic fuels, Green ethylene, Fischer-tropsch, Methanol synthesis, Energy systems |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10206563 |
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