Ghaffarian, Saman;
Shafapourtehrany, Mahyat;
Lagap, Umut;
Batur, Maryna;
Özener, Haluk;
Kılcı, Rıza Evren;
Karaman, Himmet;
(2025)
Earthquake-based multi-hazard resilience assessment: a case study of Istanbul, Turkey (neighborhood level).
npj Natural Hazards
, 2
, Article 15. 10.1038/s44304-025-00065-8.
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Abstract
We developed a model integrating 28 criteria spanning social, economic, community, environmental, and physical dimensions to evaluate earthquake resilience of Istanbul, a city with a population of 16 million and significant seismic risk, at both district and subdistrict/neighborhood levels. The resilience assessment uses the Bayesian Best-Worst Method, a multi-criteria decision-making framework that combines expert knowledge and statistical assessments. The results reveal that Istanbul’s overall Resilience Score (RS) is 0.48, on a 0-1 scale, suggesting a moderate capacity to endure and recover from seismic events. Catalca, Adalar, and Arnavutkoy rank among the most resilient districts, whereas Esenler and Gungoren exhibit lower resilience. On a subdistrict level, Suleymaniye (Fatih) has the highest RS at 0.59, while Yavuz Sultan Selim (Fatih) ranks the lowest with 0.22. These findings provide actionable and practical data-driven insights for policymakers and urban planners, underscoring the need for targeted interventions to improve resilience in high-risk areas in Istanbul.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Earthquake-based multi-hazard resilience assessment: a case study of Istanbul, Turkey (neighborhood level) |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s44304-025-00065-8 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00065-8 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © The Author(s), 2025. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| Keywords: | Environmental studies, Natural hazards |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10206382 |
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