Seaward, Amber; (2025) Advancing Terrorism Threat Assessment: Refining the Evidence Base and Evaluating Practice. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

The application of threat assessment to counterterrorism is currently held back by the limited evidence base of risk factors that impedes validated assessment tools, and the lack of empirical evaluation of operating threat assessment units. This thesis explores both, using data from multiple UK threat assessment units and a general population survey. First, a systematic review of targeted violence threat assessment implementation culminates in two operationally relevant research priorities for threat assessment of terrorism: refining the evidence base and evaluating practice. For the former, this thesis argues research should disaggregate specific terrorist roles and behaviours, to uncover previously obscured risk factors for more relevant outcomes of concern. One analysis finds value in disaggregating beyond the binary distinction between violent and nonviolent terrorism involvement into more granular roles and behaviours, among those referred to a counterterrorism mental health hub. Another analysis extends this principle to a general population survey measure of violent extremist intentions. Even among this un-radicalised sample, meaningful correlates emerge for different forms of intentions. For the latter, this thesis evaluates the public health approach to threat assessment, both in beneficial outcomes for individuals referred and the relevance of unmet mental health needs to violence prevention. An analysis of the UK’s Fixated Threat Assessment Centre provides an empirical demonstration of adherence to the public health approach by identifying and treating unmet needs. This contrasts with findings for Theseus, a private threat management company, highlighting notable diversity in the grievance-fuelled violence space. Therefore, the final empirical analysis applies this to the counterterrorism context by asking the same questions of a counterterrorism mental health hub. Collectively, these findings show the feasibility and utility of comparing specific terrorist behaviours, and the value of empirical evaluative research into the public health approach’s implementation.

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