Bright, Joanna K;
Rayner, Christopher;
Freeman, Ze;
Zavos, Helena MS;
Ahmadzadeh, Yasmin I;
Viding, Essi;
Mcadams, Tom A;
(2025)
Using twin-pairs to assess potential bias in polygenic prediction of externalising behaviours across development.
Molecular Psychiatry
10.1038/s41380-025-02920-6.
(In press).
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Abstract
Prediction from polygenic scores may be confounded by sources of passive gene-environment correlation (rGE; e.g. population stratification, assortative mating, and environmentally mediated effects of parental genotype on child phenotype). Using genomic data from 10 000 twin pairs, we asked whether polygenic scores from the most recent externalising genome-wide association study predict conduct problems, ADHD symptomology and callous-unemotional traits, and whether these predictions are biased by rGE. We ran regression models including within-family and between-family polygenic scores, to separate the direct genetic influence on a trait from environmental influences that correlate with genes (indirect genetic effects). Findings suggested that this externalising polygenic score is a good index of direct genetic influence on conduct and ADHD-related symptoms across development, with minimal bias from rGE, although the polygenic score predicted less variance in CU traits. Post-hoc analyses showed some indirect genetic effects acting on a common factor indexing stability of conduct problems across time and contexts.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Using twin-pairs to assess potential bias in polygenic prediction of externalising behaviours across development |
| Location: | England |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41380-025-02920-6 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41380-025-02920-6 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences > Clinical, Edu and Hlth Psychology |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10206016 |
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