Miller, Grant;
de Paula, Aureo;
Valente, Christine;
(2025)
Subjective expectations and demand for contraception.
Journal of Econometrics
, 249
(B)
, Article 105997. 10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.105997.
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Abstract
One-quarter of married, fertile-age women in Sub-Saharan Africa report not wanting a pregnancy and yet do not practice contraception. We collect detailed data on the subjective beliefs of married, adult women not wanting a pregnancy and estimate a structural model of contraceptive choices. Both our structural model and a validation exercise using an exogenous shock to beliefs show that correcting women’s beliefs about pregnancy risk absent contraception can increase use considerably. Our structural estimates further indicate that costly interventions like eliminating supply constraints would only modestly increase contraceptive use, while confirming the importance of partners’ preferences highlighted in related literature.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Subjective expectations and demand for contraception |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.105997 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.105997 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © 2025 The Authors. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
| Keywords: | Contraception, probabilistic beliefs, Mozambique |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Economics |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10205833 |
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