Mergulhão, Vasco Prazeres; (2025) Shining a Light on Solar Home Systems: A Data-Driven Perspective on the Payment Patterns and Behaviours of Kenyan and Rwandan Rural Energy Users. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

For over a decade Solar Home Systems (SHSs), financed through Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGo) payment schemes, have played a central role in rural electrification efforts across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Despite their proliferation and the accumulation of usage data, little is known about user payment behaviour. In the absence of a data-driven perspective, the PAYGo model still operates under opaque assumptions that do not always match the reality in the field. The present study addresses this gap, leveraging data from over 300,000 SHSs across Rwanda and Kenya to provide an unprecedented look into the payment patterns and behaviours of PAYGo users. The study explores two fundamental aspects of PAYGo user behaviour: the variety of user behavioural profiles, and their evolution over time. The first point is addressed through an aggregate clustering approach, which leverages five dimensions of payment behaviour to characterise individual users and map their diversity in Rwanda and Kenya, separately. This highlighted several parallels between the two countries, including meaningful user segments diverging from design assumptions and leading some to financial strain, particularly among monthly paying users. Ultimately, this suggests that a one-size-fits-all approach is not suitable for the PAYGo model and that more tailored plans could, simultaneously, increase affordability for users, and improve repayment performance for providers. In the second point, the study examines payment patterns over time and how these differ across socio-demographic groups. The unprecedented analysis of payment trends at scale was enabled by deep time series clustering techniques, which revealed concerning patterns of extensive intermittent access and high rates of late-term defaults, both of which highlight the need to update impact reporting in the sector. Overall, the study showcases the underutilised value of the sector’s data, demonstrating that more transparency and openness is needed to effectively advance the energy access agenda.

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