Hamill, Conor Brian;
Khraishi, Raad;
Gherghel, Simona;
Lawrence, Jerrard;
Mercuri, Salvatore;
Okhrati, Ramin;
Cowan, Greig Alan;
(2025)
Agent-based modelling of credit card promotions.
International Journal of Bank Marketing
, 43
(4)
pp. 849-870.
10.1108/IJBM-02-2024-0082.
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Abstract
Purpose: Interest-free promotions are a prevalent strategy employed by credit card lenders to attract new customers, yet the research exploring their effects on both consumers and lenders remains relatively sparse. Selecting an optimal promotion strategy is intricate, involving the determination of an interest-free period duration and promotion-availability window, all within the context of market dynamics and complex consumer behaviour. The purpose of this study is to develop an agent-based model to assist with determining optimal promotion strategies. Design/methodology/approach: In this paper, we introduce a novel agent-based model that facilitates the exploration of various credit card promotions under diverse market scenarios. Findings: Our experiments reveal that, in the absence of competitor promotions, lender profit is maximised by an interest-free duration of approximately 12 months, while market share is maximised by offering the longest duration possible. In the context of concurrent interest-free promotions, we identify that the optimal lender strategy entails offering a more competitive interest-free period and a rapid response to competing promotional offers. Notably, a delay of three months in responding to a rival promotion corresponds to a 2.4% relative decline in income. Originality/value: Our model consists of multiple lender and consumer agents that interact through a novel set of mechanisms based on well-studied consumer behaviours. Distinct from previous works, our model adopts a realistic billing cycle with a focus on interest charged to revolving accounts and supports a range of lender promotion strategies. It is calibrated to historical benchmarks and validated against both stylised facts and time-series data, ensuring a realistic reflection of market behaviour, which has been neglected in prior studies.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Agent-based modelling of credit card promotions |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1108/IJBM-02-2024-0082 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1108/ijbm-02-2024-0082 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Agent-based modelling, Business, Business & Economics, Credit card pricing, Credit card promotions, DEBT, PRICES, RISK, SIMULATION, Social Sciences |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10204808 |
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