Constant, Charles; Brownhall, Indigo; Aguilar, Laura; Dable, Eliot; Ziebart, Marek; Aruliah, Anasuya; Bhattarai, Santosh; (2024) Thermospheric Response and Operational Impacts during the 2024 Gannon Geomagnetic Storm. Presented at: European Space Weather Week 2024, Coimbra, Portugal.

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Abstract

The May 2024 Gannon geomagnetic storm, characterized by multiple X-class solar flares and Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs), resulted in a G5-level event, the most severe since the October 2003 storms. This extreme space weather event caused widespread auroras and substantial disruptions to space-based systems and critical infrastructure worldwide. This study bridges research and operational considerations by addressing the primary source of uncertainty during geomagnetic storms—atmospheric density—and its impact on space operations. An analysis of the thermosphere’s behaviour during the storm is conducted using data from multiple independent sources, including ground-based Fabry-Perot interferometer (FPI) observations, precise orbit determination (POD) data from GRACE-FO and TerraSAR-X satellites, and four operational atmospheric density models (WAM-IPE, NRLMSISE-00, DTM2000, and JB08). This evaluation explores the capabilities of both physics-based and empirical density models to accurately capture extreme variations in atmospheric density induced by the storm. The impact of the storm on satellite tracking accuracy is assessed by using precise orbits derived from satellites in densely populated altitude shells (GRACE-FO, TerraSAR-X, Sentinel-1A, and Sentinel-2B) as reference orbits to evaluate the effect of the geostorm on the quality of space object tracking by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network. This analysis provides insights into how geomagnetic storms degrade the accuracy of space object tracking, primarily due to errors in atmospheric density modelling. To quantify the operational demands on satellite operators, the number of manoeuvres required and the observed decay rates of satellites and debris within the 250-1250 km altitude range are evaluated. This assessment highlights the increased operational workload during and after the storm and illustrates the role of geomagnetic storms in accelerating the natural decay of space debris, suggesting a potential benefit for long-term space sustainability.

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