Al-Ali, Mohamed; (2025) Decision-making biases and misalignment in stakeholders’ preferences: A mixed-method research study into infrastructure projects. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

Infrastructure projects are commonly associated with delays and cost overruns. The major decisions taken in these projects are difficult to justify objectively, but have significant and lasting consequences. While many researchers have studied the outcomes of infrastructure projects, there is limited previous research on how decisions are influenced in these projects. This four-phase, mixed-method research study addresses this gap by examining the process of decision-making in infrastructure projects and the extent to which biases may influence decisions. The research explores two forms of deviation from what could be considered a rational model. The first deviation from rationality or bias is where the individual decision maker uses heuristics and is susceptible to psychological traps, meaning that they don’t act rationally at the individual level. The second deviation from rationality is where a decision maker (agent) acts on behalf of a sponsor (principal) but the preferences or objectives of the principal are not perfectly aligned with those of the agent. The first phase of the research uses case studies to understand how decisions are taken and why decisions may not proceed rationally. The second phase builds on the findings of the first phase to explore the biases present in decision-making, with two studies conducted in parallel: one evaluates the role of heuristics (mental shortcuts) in project decision-making, the other tests for misalignments in preferences between key project stakeholders. In evaluating heuristics, the individual’s susceptibility to psychological decision-making traps is tested using a custom-built software application, and is compared to their personality type using the Myers Brigg Typology Index. From a sample of 180 participants, the research finds that Introverts are significantly less likely to succumb to the confirming evidence trap than Extroverts, and that Thinkers are significantly less likely to succumb to optimism bias than Feelers. In comparing stakeholder preferences, a survey of 177 shows that project professionals find significant differences in expectations between the roles of project sponsor (principal), and project manager (agent), which may adversely impact project manager decision making. The final phase of the research uses 20 expert interviews to review the previous findings, discussing how heuristics and biases impact infrastructure projects, and how the decision-making process could be improved.

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