Kedward, Katie; Poupard, Adam; (2024) The economic and financial risks of implementing the '30x30' Global Biodiversity Framework targets. (UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, Working Paper Series 2024-13). UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose (IIPP): London, UK.

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Abstract

The Global Biodiversity Framework’s ‘30x30 targets’ aim to restore and conserve 30% of degraded ecosystems by 2030, as part of broader efforts to halt and reverse nature loss. The macrofinancial risks of conservation-related land use constraints economies remain underexplored, yet increased competition between land uses calls into question potential trade-offs between economic development and ecosystem protection/restoration. This paper first presents a novel conceptual framework articulating the channels by which a transition to implement the 30x30 targets may affect economic and financial stability. A key finding of this framework is that the importance of productive land to primary commodity production, as well as the specific role land plays within the financial system, means that land-related transition policy shocks impose additional and distinct risk transmission channels compared to climate-related policy shocks. Next, the paper uses a simple cluster analysis approach to explore which countries and regions might be most exposed to increased land competition between conservation and economic activities, indicating where macrofinancial risks might be most likely to emerge. Our results suggests that risks are likely to be disproportionately skewed towards low- and middle-income countries, that generally have a higher proportion of lands of conservation importance, a higher exposure to land competition pressures, and a lower adaptability of the economy to pressures on the food system. Our findings contribute to the growing literature on nature-related transition risks and also provide crucial insights for policymakers advancing green transition strategies.

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