Zheng, Jiali; Hou, Xiaoqing; Yang, Jiaming; Jiao, Lianyang; Coffman, D’Maris; Wang, Shouyang; (2024) The energy system transition pathway towards carbon reduction using a model-coupling approach. Global Environmental Change , 89 , Article 102945. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102945.

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Abstract

The energy system transition is widely regarded as an important strategy to achieve carbon reduction and is aligned with China's commitment to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030. Unfortunately, most modelling approaches in the existing literature do not pay sufficient attention to inter-sectoral dynamics. By using a model-coupling approach, this paper aims to study inter-sectoral energy consumption flows from 2000 to 2021 and to explore energy system transition pathways at the national and city levels. The results show that historically heavy industries have consistently maintained a high share of energy consumption and emissions accounting for 49.9 % and 60.7 % respectively by 2021, mainly caused by direct energy-resource inputs rather than post-processing inputs. In the scenario analyses, compared to the baseline scenario, the national EES scenario can reduce energy consumption by 6.7 % and emissions by 24.6 % in 2030, while the EES_CCS scenario can further reduce emissions by 48.4 %. Furthermore, the energy consumption and CO2 emissions across cities are influenced by the industrial structure, the degree of electrification, and the amount of new energy installed.

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