Silk, MJ;
Carrignon, S;
Bentley, RA;
Fefferman, NH;
(2021)
Improving pandemic mitigation policies across communities through coupled dynamics of risk perception and infection.
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
, 288
(1955)
, Article 20210834. 10.1098/rspb.2021.0834.
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Abstract
Capturing the coupled dynamics between individual behavioural decisions that affect disease transmission and the epidemiology of outbreaks is critical to pandemic mitigation strategy. We develop a multiplex network approach to model how adherence to health-protective behaviours that impact COVID-19 spread are shaped by perceived risks and resulting community norms. We focus on three synergistic dynamics governing individual behavioural choices: (i) social construction of concern, (ii) awareness of disease incidence, and (iii) reassurance by lack of disease. We show why policies enacted early or broadly can cause communities to become reassured and therefore unwilling to maintain or adopt actions. Public health policies for which success relies on collective action should therefore exploit the behaviourally receptive phase; the period between the generation of sufficient concern to foster adoption of novel actions and the relaxation of adherence driven by reassurance fostered by avoidance of negative outcomes over time.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Improving pandemic mitigation policies across communities through coupled dynamics of risk perception and infection |
| Location: | England |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1098/rspb.2021.0834 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2021.0834 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2021 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. |
| Keywords: | Disease risk perception, behavioural epidemiology, social norms, behaviourally receptive phase |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences > Genetics, Evolution and Environment |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10198574 |
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